Activision Blizzard, whose acquisition by Microsoft was lately known as into query by the UK’s Competitors and Markets Authority (CMA), introduced This fall earnings on Monday. As a result of its transaction with Microsoft continues to be pending, Activision didn’t host an earnings name or publish an earnings presentation. However Activision’s earnings abstract did reveal some spectacular insights about its cellular portfolio, which is comprised of King’s titles (together with the Sweet Crush franchise), Name of Obligation Cell, Diablo Immortal, and Hearthstone, amongst others. Notable in Activision’s earnings launch:
- Cell web bookings grew by “mid-teens” on a year-over-year foundation;
- Name of Obligation Cell web bookings grew by “double-digits” on a year-over-year foundation to a brand new quarterly file;
- King’s income grew by 6% on a year-over-year foundation, with in-game web bookings growing by 9%;
- Sweet Crush Saga, the flagship title within the Sweet Crush franchise which celebrated its 10-year anniversary in November, noticed in-game web bookings develop by an astonishing 20% year-over-year in every quarter of 2022.
This efficiency stands in stark distinction to the broader cellular gaming market, which many various knowledge suppliers estimate declined in 2022:
- SensorTower estimates that the cellular gaming market shrank by 2% in 2022;
- Newzoo, by 4.3%;
- Information.ai (previously AppAnnie), by 5%.
As I’ve argued beforehand, cellular gaming sits on the heart of the impression zone for Apple’s App Monitoring Transparency (ATT) privateness coverage. In The ATT Recession, I make the case for why ATT explains the ache felt by cellular gaming in 2022, which was the primary yr for which revenues throughout cellular gaming as a class didn’t enhance.
What, then, is totally different about King’s portfolio, and Sweet Crash Saga particularly?
To unpack this query, it’s vital to contemplate how ATT disturbs the expansion and normal operational routine of cellular video games. I describe how ATT disrupts the hub-and-spoke mannequin of digital promoting in this piece; provided that cellular video games are largely reliant on direct-response app set up promoting for progress, it logically follows that if focusing on effectivity breaks on the biggest app set up platforms (Meta, Snap, Google UAC) on account of ATT, then cellular gaming firms would see their income progress weaken in consequence. I stroll by way of the impression of ATT on focusing on effectivity in this piece and articulate why I believe ATT is chargeable for frailty within the cellular gaming market in Mapping the post-ATT way forward for cellular free-to-play gaming.
However the depredations of ATT should not evenly distributed, as I suggest in IDFA deprecation: winners and losers. In that piece, written in October 2020, I try to gauge the magnitude of the impact of ATT on numerous parts of the cellular panorama. The estimated impression chart for cellular video games is beneath:
About “Reasonable IAP Monetization Video games,” or informal video games, I state:
Whereas many “Informal” video games like puzzle and simulation video games depend on the monetization profiles owned by advert platforms for focusing on, they’ve bigger underlying attraction, they are typically simpler to promote with out hyper-targeting, they usually rely much less on excessive monetization from a really small share of the person base — what I name the long-tail LTV distribution — for financial viability.
And in How iOS14 may change client conduct on cellular, in addition to in my 2023 predictions for cellular gaming, I argue that ATT would precipitate a “transfer to the center” throughout the cellular gaming class associated to content material:
The acute ends of the cellular gaming spectrum — “core” video games pushed by common in-app occasions and excessive in-app buy monetization, and hypercasual video games that monetize completely by way of promoting and permit the aforementioned core video games to go “whale searching” by way of IDFA-targeting — thrive within the present, profile-centric promoting setting, and each of those classes face important headwinds when the IDFA is deprecated…I believe gaming most likely strikes to the center: not solely do the video games change into extra broadly interesting cosmetically but in addition by way of lodging of play preferences.
If one recreation was held up as the usual bearer for the “center” of the casual-to-core spectrum of cellular gaming, it’s Sweet Crush Saga: light-weight however efficient monetization mechanics paired with expansively interesting aesthetics and a simple and intuitive puzzle recreation mechanic.
Sweet Crush Saga and the broader Sweet Crush gaming franchise seize the profile of a recreation that will excel within the post-ATT market: buoyed by an updraft of near-total model consciousness, with a big whole addressable market, informal recreation mechanics, and a universally-inviting aesthetic and tone (see The Energy Triad of Resonance for Cell Video games for extra background on how theme, tone, and mechanic intersect to outline a recreation’s marketability).
