As of Friday’s shut of $115.04, AAPL is buying and selling at a 27.5x a number of on my FY21 EPS estimate (26.6x when excluding NTM internet money and dividends).
I count on record-strong Dec quarter steerage ought to offset any perceived weak point from roughly inline Sep outcomes because of est. ~$6b iPhone and ~$1b AppleCare income push-back (as hinted in final name however maybe not absolutely digested by analysts/buyers). This offset will get picked up principally in present 1Q however some additionally in 2Q ending in March because of late Oct/early Nov launch organising an uncommon 2Q as first full quarter of gross sales this cycle, a privilege usually reserved for the December quarter.
All product line projections revised upwards over NTM, significantly Mac and iPad which in flip feed again to spice up mid/long-term progress for all different income segments because of my crazy modeling of put in base/ecosystem interdependencies. Modeling very sturdy NTM iPhone progress because of straightforward comps, with continued power over subsequent 2-3 years given 5G rollout unfold over a number of cycles.
Past that it is anybody’s guess however tentatively permitting for sustainable, long-term progress of excessive single-digits in income and low double-digits in EPS (was mid/excessive single digits). This enhance would then generate sufficient cashflow to keep up latest ~$75b sturdy tempo of buybacks even after “internet money impartial” aim is met in a number of years, but the upper projected inventory value prevents an analogous EPS leverage profit as in recent times at half-price reductions.
As for valuation, such a degree of progress if actually sustained long-term (5y) would doubtless justify additional enlargement past my admittedly conservative 20x a number of, however I’ve chosen to not bake this in simply but, not less than till the extra bold progress trajectory will get validated over the yr or so after the exceptionally scorching March outlier is behind us.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Sep20 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 64.2 - 0.71 My estimates 64.8 37.9 0.73 (17.2b shares) 3mo ending Dec20 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 100.2 - 1.36 Apple gde lo (e) 100.0 37.5 1.33* Apple gde hello (e) 104.0 38.5 1.45* My estimates 103.2 38.3 1.44 (17.1b shares) *EPS steerage ranges derived from different figures supplied by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep21 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- Analysts consens 309.8 3.87 My estimates 326.3 4.18 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- Path Val Oct2019 3.26 10% 14.0 46 4.2 0.80 51 Truthful Val Oct2020 4.18 28% 17.7 74 3.2 0.87 78 1y Goal Oct2021 4.81 15% 19.4 93 2.6 0.96 97 2y Worth! Oct2022 5.51 15% 19.9 110 2.1 1.06 113 *Money per share steadiness internet of debt and industrial paper(click on to enlarge)
F4Q20 Statements of Operations Revenues F4Q20e F4Q19 Y/Y% -------- ------ ------ ----- iPhone 29,473 33,362 -11.7 Mac 7,986 6,991 +14.2 iPad 6,011 4,656 +29.1 W/H/A 7,440 6,520 +14.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- Merchandise 50,910 51,529 -1.2 Providers 13,922 12,511 +11.3 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot Revs 64,832 64,040 +1.2 Gross Margin Breakdown -------- ------ ------ ----- Merchandise 15,292 16,291 -6.1 Providers 9,280 8,022 +15.7 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM 24,572 24,313 +1.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- Prod GM% 30.0% 31.6% -1.6 Svcs GM% 66.7% 64.1% +2.5 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM% 37.9% 38.0% -0.1 Op Expns 9,830 8,688 +13.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- OpIncome 14,743 15,625 -5.6 Op Mrgn% 22.7% 24.4% -1.7 OIE 90 502 -82.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- Pre-Tax 14,833 16,127 -8.0 Tax Fee 15.0% 15.1% -0.1 Tax Prov 2,225 2,441 -8.9 -------- ------ ------ ----- Web Incm 12,608 13,686 -7.9 Web Mrg% 19.4% 21.4% -1.9 Dil Shrs 17,215 18,081 -4.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- EPS $0.73 $0.76 -3.2 Quantities in tens of millions besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in %
