As of Friday’s closing value of $154.09, AAPL trades at a 21.9x a number of on my NTM EPS estimate (21.3x when excluding NTM web money and dividends).
Trimmed income projection by 2-3%, partially offset by barely extra affected person opex depth, nonetheless ends in long-term EPS progress trajectory holding up at excessive single-digits, so the 24x projected valuation stays legitimate, even conservative. The current market value dip to low-20s a number of affords the now uncommon alternative of a mean quarterly value under my “truthful” (or ahead) valuation stage (thus the blue dashed line within the chart under), one thing which was once the case always from late 2008 to early 2017 however has solely occurred as soon as (Jan-Feb 2019) within the final 5 years. Even after a 20% rebound from current lows, this nonetheless appears an distinctive alternative for long-term traders. As all the time, I could possibly be mistaken, so do your individual due diligence and determine in keeping with your specific risk-tolerance profile.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Jun22 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 82.6 - 1.16 My estimates 83.9 43.4 1.22 (16.31b shares) 3mo ending Sep22 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 89.9 - 1.32 Apple gde lo (e) 87.0 42.5 1.25* Apple gde hello (e) 92.0 43.5 1.40* My estimates 92.2 43.4 1.42 (16.18b shares) *EPS steering ranges derived from different figures supplied by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep23 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- Analysts consens 414.8 6.51 My estimates 434.1 7.17 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- Path Val Jul2021 6.08 19% 20.8 126 3.9 0.89 131 Frwrd Val Jul2022 7.04 16% 22.9 161 3.5 0.94 166 1y Goal Jul2023 7.60 8% 23.7 180 2.6 1.03 184 2y Worth! Jul2024 8.35 10% 23.9 200 1.8 1.15 203 *Money per share stability web of debt and industrial paper(click on to enlarge)
F3Q22 Statements of Operations Revenues F3Q22e F3Q21 Y/Y% -------- ------- ------- ----- iPhone 37,932 39,570 -4.1 Mac 9,123 8,235 10.8 iPad 7,454 7,368 1.2 W/H/A 9,280 8,775 5.8 -------- ------- ------- ----- Merchandise 63,788 63,948 -0.3 Companies 20,114 17,486 15.0 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot Revs 83,902 81,434 3.0 Gross Margin Breakdown -------- ------- ------- ----- Merchandise 21,932 23,049 -4.8 Companies 14,478 12,206 18.6 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot GM 36,411 35,255 3.3 -------- ------- ------- ----- Prod GM% 34.4% 36.0% -1.7 Svcs GM% 72.0% 69.8% 2.2 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot GM% 43.4% 43.3% 0.1 Op Expns 12,752 11,129 14.6 -------- ------- ------- ----- OpIncome 23,658 24,126 -1.9 Op Mrgn% 28.2% 29.6% -1.4 OIE 115 243 -52.7 -------- ------- ------- ----- Pre-Tax 23,773 24,369 -2.4 Tax Charge 16.0% 10.8% 5.2 Tax Prov 3,804 2,625 44.9 -------- ------- ------- ----- Internet Incm 19,969 21,744 -8.2 Internet Mrg% 23.8% 26.7% -2.9 Dil Shrs 16,311 16,782 -2.8 -------- ------- ------- ----- EPS $1.22 $1.30 -5.5 Quantities in hundreds of thousands besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in %
