As of right now’s present value of $156.05, AAPL trades at a 23.4x a number of on my NTM EPS estimate (22.7x when excluding NTM internet money and dividends).
Consensus development estimates for FY22 have improved barely, however nonetheless stay nicely beneath my estimates. I am at +11/15% whereas consensus is 4.5/2.4% rev/EPS development for the Fiscal 12 months. The truth that consensus EPS development is slower than income development proves these are flawed estimates not reflecting the numerous leverage from rising gross margins and about 3% decrease share rely.
Given the market’s latest nervousness in addition to final report’s inline outcomes, I’ve determined to depart the long-term goal valuation a number of at 23x for now. If my March quarter estimates align with no matter steering clues are supplied, then I most definitely will elevate the a number of to 24x subsequent time, with nonetheless yet another nudge to 25x hopefully later this 12 months. I am going to depart the dialogue of doubtless enormous upside from new product classes to different analysts, however the impact on financials can be gradual over the following 3-5 years, and never felt this 12 months in any respect. Nonetheless, buyers ought to anticipate such results and most definitely carry again the trailing a number of up above 30x with the inventory breaking $200 nicely forward of any announcement.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Dec21 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 118.4 - 1.89 My estimates 121.3 42.2 1.98 (16.54b shares) 3mo ending Mar22 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 90.7 - 1.33 Apple gde lo (e) 94.0 42.0 1.43* Apple gde hello (e) 98.0 43.0 1.56* My estimates 98.4 42.9 1.58 (16.42b shares) *EPS steering ranges derived from different figures supplied by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep22 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- Analysts consens 382.3 5.74 My estimates 406.6 6.45 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- Path Val Jan2021 5.91 60% 19.0 112 4.4 0.87 117 Frwrd Val Jan2022 6.68 13% 21.8 146 3.4 0.97 150 1y Goal Jan2023 7.45 12% 22.7 169 2.3 1.15 173 2y Worth! Jan2024 8.22 10% 22.9 189 1.3 1.44 191 *Money per share stability internet of debt and business paper(click on to enlarge)
F1Q22 Statements of Operations Revenues F1Q22e F1Q21 Y/Y% -------- ------- ------- ----- iPhone 69,989 65,597 6.7 Mac 9,770 8,675 12.6 iPad 8,323 8,435 -1.3 W/H/A 14,560 12,971 12.2 -------- ------- ------- ----- Merchandise 102,642 95,678 7.3 Companies 18,676 15,761 18.5 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot Revs 121,317 111,439 8.9 Gross Margin Breakdown -------- ------- ------- ----- Merchandise 37,963 33,548 13.2 Companies 13,176 10,780 22.2 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot GM 51,139 44,328 15.4 -------- ------- ------- ----- Prod GM% 37.0% 35.1% 1.9 Svcs GM% 70.5% 68.4% 2.2 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot GM% 42.2% 39.8% 2.4 Op Expns 12,473 10,794 15.6 -------- ------- ------- ----- OpIncome 38,666 33,534 15.3 Op Mrgn% 31.9% 30.1% 1.8 OIE -251 45 - -------- ------- ------- ----- Pre-Tax 38,415 33,579 14.4 Tax Fee 14.8% 14.4% 0.4 Tax Prov 5,666 4,824 17.5 -------- ------- ------- ----- Web Incm 32,748 28,755 13.9 Web Mrg% 27.0% 25.8% 1.2 Dil Shrs 16,541 17,114 -3.3 -------- ------- ------- ----- EPS $1.98 $1.68 17.8 Quantities in hundreds of thousands besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in %
