As of right this moment’s market shut of $120.08, AAPL is buying and selling at a 12.5x a number of on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (8.9x when excluding next-12m internet money and div).
Not making an attempt to guess the timing and particulars of no matter overseas money repatriation deal will get completed, or what decrease company tax charge may apply going ahead. Nor am I modeling any “protectionism” results till extra definitive developments happen. Unpredictable coverage modifications ought to have an effect on everybody, not simply Apple, however after all it’s Apple that will get singled out and most talked about within the media. So, to counter that sentiment I am doing nothing in any respect to my mannequin till we hear extra, particularly from Apple administration as new administration “official” bulletins appear unreliable.
Promote facet analysts income estimates for the remainder of FY17 and FY18 proper now appear barely optimistic for a change, however possible I am simply being a bit conservative. However I consider they’re barely low on margins. Feels odd to be so near consensus for the following 12 months or two however as all the time I’ve no drawback adjusting if precise experiences come larger. In any case, valuation stays fairly engaging, after all.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Dec-2016 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 77,370 - 3.22 Apple information low 76,000 38.0 3.09* Apple information excessive 78,000 38.5 3.27* My estimates 78,050 38.7 3.28 (5.33b shares) 3mo ending Mar-2017 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 54,180 - 2.11 Apple information low (e) 52,000 38.5 1.97* Apple information excessive(e) 54,000 39.5 2.14* My estimates 53,833 39.5 2.15 (5.25b shares) *EPS steering ranges derived from different figures supplied by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep-2017 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 227,760 8.95 My estimates 228,650 9.12 Valuation (fwd-12mo from) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Money* Div Tot ------------------------- ------ ---- --- ---- ---- --- Trailing (Jan-2016) 8.27 -12% 83 29 2.23 114 Truthful worth (Jan-2017) 9.59 16% 96 32 2.40 130 1yr goal (Jan-2018) 10.32 8% 103 38 2.50 144 * Money per share stability internet of long-term debt
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F1Q17 Income breakdown: iPhone 53,355 (77.50 × $688) iPad 6,681 (14.50 × $461) Mac 6,666 ( 5.25 × $1,270) Providers 6,794 Different 4,554 ( 6.00 × $364 = 2,181 Watch) Revenue assertion: Income 78,050 COGS (47,844) GM 30,206 38.7% OpEx ( 6,972) OpInc 23,234 29.8% OIE 396 Pre-tax 23,630 Tax ( 6,144) 26.0% NetInc 17,486 22.4% Shares 5,330 EPS $3.28 (quantities in thousands and thousands besides $ASP, $EPS, and ratios%)
