As of yesterday’s shut of $150.00, AAPL is buying and selling at a 11.6x a number of on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (10.4x when excluding next-12-months web money and dividends).
Projection highlights:
– iPhone income development -10%/+3% in FY 19/20 (cf. -12% in FY16)
– Non-iPhone income development +15%/+9% in FY 19/20
– General income development -1%/5% in FY 19/20, mid-low single digits thereafter
– Web revenue development -2%/4% in FY 19/20, low single digits thereafter
– Subsequent report raises quarterly dividend to 81/92 cents in 19/20 (+11%/+14%)
– Buybacks of $8b/$60b for This autumn/Q1 ($71b remained licensed as of Sep 2018)
– Increase authorization by $75b till March 2020, $65b till 2021, and ~$50b/y thereafter
Analysts are modeling inadequate buybacks, or do not imagine in web money zero guarantees from administration, or nonetheless hope for large M/A. Implies ~8% upside to consensus EPS estimates.
My prior ahead valuation a number of growth of 0.25x per quarter will regularly taper beginning after present quarter from 12x to 13.5x by 2022. Ought to be aiming at 15x however must accomodate market sentiment with a purpose to mannequin future share discount extra precisely.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Dec18 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 84.3 - 4.19 Apple guid revis 84.0 38.0 4.16* My estimates 84.1 38.0 4.17 (4.77b shares) 3mo ending Mar19 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 59.3 - 2.66 Apple gde lo (e) 58.0 38.5 2.60* Apple gde hello (e) 60.0 39.0 2.77* My estimates 60.2 38.9 2.78 (4.67b shares) *EPS steering ranges derived from different figures offered by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep19 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ----- Analysts consens 261.2 12.13 My estimates 264.1 12.88 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y x Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ----- --- ----- --- -- ---- --- Path Val Jan2018 12.15 25% 10.75 131 27 2.82 161 Truthful Val Jan2019 13.87 14% 11.75 163 13 3.16 179 1y Goal Jan2020 15.58 12% 12.60 196 8 3.57 207 *Money per share steadiness web of long-term debt
(click on to enlarge)
F1Q19 Income breakdown: iPhone 51,822 iPad 6,365 Mac 7,350 Providers 10,834 W/H/A 7,700 Earnings assertion: Income 84,071 COGS (52,088) GM 31,982 38.0% OpEx (8,689) OpInc 23,294 27.7% OIE 550 Pre-tax 23,844 Tax (3,934) 16.5% NetInc 19,910 23.7% Shares 4,773 EPS $4.17 (quantities in hundreds of thousands besides $EPS in {dollars} and ratios%)
