I’ve not a lot to say that hasn’t been mentioned elsewhere. iPhone 7s/7s+/8/Professional/X is the plain subsequent catalyst, with an occasion in early Sep as all the time, 7s/7s+ out there finish of Sep and eight/Professional/no matter model out there in Oct/Nov. Not going to delve into the arguments about potential adjustments attributable to new tech. However please do go and browse all about it elsewhere.
US Greenback lastly weakening ought to be a reduction from previous few years relentless FX headwinds, at the least for This autumn steerage and Dec quarter. Past that it is anybody’s guess given the shifting expectations on key US insurance policies. Nonetheless not baking in something relating to tax reform (each overseas and home) till a extra particular timeline is offered by administration. Feedback final cc about “someday this yr” have been seemingly a bit untimely. Appears to be like like a one-two 2018 story about iPhone supercycle and tax reform.
Fiscal 2019 consensus estimates for at the least mid single-digits progress appear key for continued inventory appreciation. These will probably be publicly out there in monetary websites after This autumn will get reported (seemingly on Oct 31). In fact, Dec quarter steerage given that very same day is immensely vital, however everybody already is aware of this. Proper? Okay. Simply keep in mind to additionally get a peek at 2019 estimates then, and permit a pair weeks for analysts’ mannequin updates to trickle by the info providers and eventually present up within the public websites. The truth is, I am going to repeat this paragraph verbatim once I submit my present quarter estimates round mid-Oct.
Benefit from the Summer time. Large, thrilling Fall coming!
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Jun-2017 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 44,920 - 1.57 Apple information low 43,500 37.5 1.45* Apple information excessive 45,500 38.5 1.61* My estimates 45,455 38.6 1.62 (5.22b shares)
3mo ending Sep-2017 Rev($M) GM(%) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ----- ------ Analysts consensus 50,230 - 1.86 Apple information low (e) 48,000 37.5 1.69* Apple information excessive(e) 50,000 38.5 1.86* My estimates 49,743 38.4 1.84 (5.17b shares) *EPS steerage ranges derived from different figures offered by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep-2018 Rev($M) EPS($) ------------------- ------- ------ Analysts consensus 254,030 10.60 My estimates 253,785 10.65 Valuation (fwd-12mo from) EPS($) Y/Y 10x Money* Div Tot ------------------------- ------ ---- --- ---- ---- --- Trailing (Jul-2016) 8.74 2% 87 30 2.34 120 Honest Worth (Jul-2017) 10.38 19% 104 32 2.58 139 1yr Goal (Jul-2018) 10.98 6% 110 37 2.86 150 * Money per share stability web of long-term debt
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F3Q17 Income breakdown:
iPhone 26,055 (41.00 × $635) iPad 3,908 ( 9.25 × $423) Mac 5,719 ( 4.35 × $1,315) Providers 7,194 Different 2,579 ( 2.6 × $389 = 1,012 Watch) Earnings assertion: Income 45,455 COGS (27,931) GM 17,524 38.6% OpEx ( 6,662) OpInc 10,893 23.9% OIE 461 Pre-tax 11,324 Tax ( 2,888) 25.5% NetInc 8,436 18.6% Shares 5,216 EPS $1.62 (quantities in hundreds of thousands besides $ASP, $EPS, and ratios%)
