As of at the moment’s shut of $204.50, AAPL is buying and selling at a 15.5x a number of on my next-twelve-months EPS estimate (14.0x when excluding NTM internet money and dividends).
Do not get fooled by probably the most boring quarters, like, ever. One other consecutive “no collapse” quarter is nice, means final Q1 changes labored. Undecided why WS sees 3% rev decline in Sep after flat or slight progress in June, in any case, robust This fall steering could shock (however no earns progress till Q1).
Emphasis on intriguing longer-term themes is nice. Key behind-the-scenes platform and enterprise mannequin shifts, taking place nearly in slow-motion, into new companies and broader ecosystem relationships ultimately may have enormous results on long-term fundamentals, however mockingly will probably be exhausting to note for a while and confound most pundits.
Additionally exhausting to elucidate, so I am going to depart it at that.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Jun19 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 53.4 - 2.10 Apple information low 52.5 37.0 2.00* Apple information excessive 54.5 38.0 2.21* My estimates 53.8 37.8 2.15 (4.59b shares) 3mo ending Sep19 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 61.2 - 2.69 Apple gde lo (e) 61.0 38.0 2.70* Apple gde hello (e) 63.0 38.5 2.88* My estimates 62.8 38.3 2.85 (4.50b shares) *EPS steering ranges derived from different figures supplied by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep20 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ----- Analysts consens 268.2 12.62 My estimates 275.7 13.56 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ----- --- ----- --- -- ---- --- Path Val Jul2018 11.70 6% 11.25 132 21 2.96 156 Honest Val Jul2019 13.20 13% 12.25 162 17 3.16 181 1y Goal Jul2020 14.74 12% 13.11 193 12 3.50 209 *Money per share steadiness internet of debt and business paper
(click on to enlarge)
Statements of Operations Revenues F3Q19e F3Q18* Y/Y% -------- ------ ------ ----- iPhone 24,908 29,470 -15.5 Mac 6,050 5,258 15.1 iPad 5,506 4,634 18.8 W/H/A 5,359 3,733 43.6 -------- ------ ------ ----- Merchandise 41,822 43,095 -3.0 Providers 11,971 10,170 17.7 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot Revs 53,793 53,265 1.0 Gross Margin Breakdown (est) -------- ------ ------ ----- Merchandise 12,688 14,325 -11.4 Providers 7,630 6,096 25.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM 20,318 20,421* -0.5 -------- ------ ------ ----- Prod GM% 30.3% 33.2% -2.9 Svcs GM% 63.7% 59.9% 3.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM% 37.8% 38.3% -0.6 Op Expns 8,750 7,809 12.0 -------- ------ ------ ----- OpIncome 11,569 12,612 -8.3 Op Mrgn% 21.5% 23.7% -2.2 OIE 250 672 -62.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- Pre-Tax 11,819 13,284 -11.0 Tax Charge 16.5% 13.3% 3.2 Tax Prov 1,950 1,765 10.5 -------- ------ ------ ----- Internet Incm 9,868 11,519 -14.3 Internet Mrg% 18.3% 21.6% -3.3 Dil Shrs 4,593 4,927 -6.8 -------- ------ ------ ----- EPS $2.15 $2.34 -8.1 Quantities in tens of millions besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in % * F3Q18 precise as reported besides Gross Margin Breakdown
