On the identical time, China has developed vital capabilities “to carry key U.S. and Allied house property in danger,” and would deploy them in any battle with Taiwan, in line with one other leaked doc.
Taken collectively, the assessments present the elevated significance house has in trendy warfare, highlighted by the battle in Ukraine, and so they underline the sorts of threats army analysts have been warning about for years.
The Submit obtained the paperwork, which haven’t been beforehand reported, from a trove of intelligence materials allegedly leaked to a Discord chatroom by Jack Teixeira, a member of the Massachusetts Air Nationwide Guard.
The Protection Division declined to remark.
The leak comes because the U.S. Area Drive enters its third yr of operation and as senior Pentagon leaders sound the alarm over elevated threats coming from house.
Talking final week on the Area Symposium convention in Colorado Springs, Area Drive Gen. Probability Saltzman, the chief of house operations, mentioned the Pentagon is “seeing an extremely subtle array of threats” that features jamming of communications and GPS satellites, spacecraft that may grapple different satellites, lasers that may dazzle them, cyberattacks and even “nesting dolls,” or satellites that launch others that unfold out and monitor adversaries’ spacecraft.
Air Drive Secretary Frank Kendall mentioned throughout the convention that China “has doubled the variety of their satellites simply for the reason that Area Drive was established.” It now has greater than 700 in operation with about 250 used for ISR, or intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.
Each China and Russia have the power to destroy satellites in orbit with missiles. China did so in 2007, whereas in 2021, Russia destroyed a useless satellite tv for pc with a missile, creating an enormous discipline of particles and drawing condemnation from the USA and worldwide group. The Submit beforehand reported that leaked paperwork confirmed Russia has additionally experimented with its Tobol digital warfare system in an try to disrupt SpaceX’s Starlink satellite tv for pc system, which has saved Ukrainians related all through the battle with Russia.
In its annual “Area Risk Evaluation” report, launched this month, the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research discovered that “China continues to make progress towards its purpose of changing into the world chief in house. Over the previous yr, China has continued to develop its house and counterspace property, sustaining its standing because the second-most-capable house nation after the USA.”
China has additionally developed an area station in low Earth orbit, landed a spacecraft on the far facet of the moon and a rover on Mars. It additionally plans to place astronauts on the moon and is concentrating on the lunar south pole, the place NASA’s Artemis program additionally intends to ship astronauts.
China by far has the extra dynamic house program of the 2 U.S. rivals, U.S. officers say.
One of many leaked paperwork says “[China’s] total army technique to ascertain and preserve data dominance in battle drives Beijing’s growth of house and counterspace doctrine, capabilities and TTP,” or techniques, methods and procedures.
As a part of a army strike on Taiwan, China would most likely jam communications and intelligence satellites that may see by clouds, “degrade or destroy house floor networks” and “destroy ballistic missile early warning satellites,” the doc says.
Throughout a congressional listening to final week, NASA Administrator Invoice Nelson repeated his perception that the nation is in an area race with China on the civilian facet as properly, and warned that the USA wanted to get its astronauts to the moon earlier than China does.
“In case you let China get there first, what’s to cease them from saying, ‘We’re right here. That is our space. You keep out.’ That’s why I believe it’s necessary for us to get there on a global mission and set up the foundations of the street.”
Whereas China’s house program has been advancing steadily, Russia’s has diminished, in line with the leaked intelligence recordsdata. Together with international competitors, “severed Western partnerships and disrupted provide chains additionally very doubtless have hampered the Russian house program’s capacity to generate funding, which has been in decline since at the least 2020,” one of many paperwork says.
With out mentioning SpaceX by identify, the doc famous that in 2020, “a named U.S. industrial firm was licensed to move astronauts to the Worldwide Area Station; the U.S. had paid $75-85M per seat on Russian spacecraft.”
The doc additionally famous that “overseas prospects have canceled deliberate launches on Russian [rockets] and different space-related actions, eliminating a key income stream.” International sources offered a further $4.5 billion in 2020 to Russia’s roughly $17 billion house price range, the doc mentioned.
One other consider its gradual demise is that “Russia has been unable to simply receive space-grade parts resulting from Western sanctions, forcing manufacturing delays of army and civilian satellites,” in line with the doc.
Earlier than 2014, the doc mentioned, “Moscow deprioritized home manufacturing of house parts as a result of superior Western expertise was available.” And now, “Moscow is searching for to extend materials help from [China] to maintain its house business,” the doc reads.
“Russian firms tried to create space-rated parts for choose satellites,” the doc asserts. “However the low high quality of the parts led to on-orbit malfunctions.” It didn’t determine particular failings.
Final yr, the Kremlin appointed Yuri Borisov, a deputy prime minister, to switch Dmitry Rogozin as the top of Roscosmos, the Russian house company. Rogozin had threatened to finish the partnership with the USA on the Worldwide Area Station over the U.S. response to the warfare in Ukraine.
Whereas the partnership has endured, Russia has had severe issues with two of its spacecraft. This yr, Roscosmos was pressured to ship a alternative Soyuz spacecraft to the station after one other one suffered a puncture to one in every of its exterior coolant strains and sprang a leak. The broken spacecraft was deemed unsuitable for returning cosmonauts Sergey Prokopyev and Dmitri Petelin, in addition to NASA astronaut Frank Rubio.
Then one other spacecraft, this one used for cargo solely, suffered an analogous leak. It was not clear whether or not they had been hit by micrometeorites or had manufacturing defects.
