As of yesterday’s shut of $131.94, AAPL trades at a 26.6x a number of on my NTM EPS estimate (25.8x when excluding NTM web money and dividends).
For the annual replace on the capital return program, I count on the quarterly dividend will go to 23¢ from 20.5¢ (+12.2%) and $135b added to the roughly $10b remaining by now within the share repurchase authorization ($32b remained by Dec) offering a snug cushion to maintain $85-95b annual tempo of buybacks.
Final quarter’s income/EPS development of 34/64% is totally dumbfounding (and clearly not sustainable) for this dimension of a enterprise, an outlier ensuing from final 12 months’s impression on manufacturing (and demand to a lesser extent) from the pandemic closures. Mid-term (2-3y) income development ought to decelerate to nonetheless remarkably sturdy low-teens due to WFH, homegrown silicon transition, and 5G adoption, leveraged via buybacks to attain high-teens EPS development. Longer-term (>3y) income development of excessive single-digits mixed with continued sturdy buyback tempo yields sustainable double-digit EPS development.
On valuation, I am sticking with a 22x long-term a number of goal for now (trailing lags at 16x however quick catching up by a degree per quarter), at the very least till outlier outcomes of this quarter (and maybe FY) are behind us, as that is after we’ll get higher validation of the sustainable long-term development potential that I am at present projecting.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Mar21 Rev$B GM% $EPS
---------------- ----- ---- ----
Analysts consens 77.1 - 0.98
My estimates 78.2 40.8 1.05 (16.92b shares)
3mo ending Jun21 Rev$B GM% $EPS
---------------- ----- ---- ----
Analysts consens 68.9 - 0.82
Apple gde lo (e) 67.0 40.0 0.80*
Apple gde hello (e) 71.0 41.0 0.91*
My estimates 70.5 40.6 0.89 (16.77b shares)
*EPS steering ranges derived from different figures supplied
by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me
12m ending Sep21 Rev$B $EPS
---------------- ----- ----
Analysts consens 334.0 4.46
My estimates 337.6 4.63
Valuation
Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot
--------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---
Path Val Apr2020 4.11 29% 16.0 66 4.4 0.82 71
Frwrd Val Apr2021 4.97 21% 19.5 97 2.7 0.92 100
1y Goal Apr2022 5.74 16% 21.2 122 1.8 1.00 125
2y Worth! Apr2023 6.41 12% 21.8 140 1.1 1.16 142
*Money per share steadiness web of debt and industrial paper
(click on to enlarge)
F2Q21 Statements of Operations
Revenues F2Q21e F2Q20 Y/Y%
-------- ------ ------ -----
iPhone 39,514 28,962 +36.4
Mac 7,934 5,351 +48.3
iPad 6,116 4,368 +40.0
W/H/A 8,220 6,284 +30.8
-------- ------ ------ -----
Merchandise 61,783 44,965 +37.4
Providers 16,445 13,348 +23.2
-------- ------ ------ -----
Tot Revs 78,228 58,313 +34.2
Gross Margin Breakdown
-------- ------ ------ -----
Merchandise 20,614 13,644 +51.1
Providers 11,290 8,726 +29.4
-------- ------ ------ -----
Tot GM 31,903 22,370 +42.6
-------- ------ ------ -----
Prod GM% 33.4% 30.3% +3.0
Svcs GM% 68.7% 65.4% +3.3
-------- ------ ------ -----
Tot GM% 40.8% 38.4% +2.4
Op Expns 10,838 9,517 +13.9
-------- ------ ------ -----
OpIncome 21,065 12,853 +63.9
Op Mrgn% 26.9% 22.0% +4.9
OIE 69 282 -75.4
-------- ------ ------ -----
Pre-Tax 21,134 13,135 +60.9
Tax Price 16.0% 14.4% +1.6
Tax Prov 3,382 1,886 +79.3
-------- ------ ------ -----
Web Incm 17,753 11,249 +57.8
Web Mrg% 22.7% 19.3% +3.4
Dil Shrs 16,923 17,619 -3.9
-------- ------ ------ -----
EPS $1.05 $0.64 +64.3
Quantities in hundreds of thousands besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in %
