HomeApple StockFiscal 2Q 2021 Ultimate Estimates

Fiscal 2Q 2021 Ultimate Estimates


As of yesterday’s shut of $131.94, AAPL trades at a 26.6x a number of on my NTM EPS estimate (25.8x when excluding NTM web money and dividends).

For the annual replace on the capital return program, I count on the quarterly dividend will go to 23¢ from 20.5¢ (+12.2%) and $135b added to the roughly $10b remaining by now within the share repurchase authorization ($32b remained by Dec) offering a snug cushion to maintain $85-95b annual tempo of buybacks.

Final quarter’s income/EPS development of 34/64% is totally dumbfounding (and clearly not sustainable) for this dimension of a enterprise, an outlier ensuing from final 12 months’s impression on manufacturing (and demand to a lesser extent) from the pandemic closures. Mid-term (2-3y) income development ought to decelerate to nonetheless remarkably sturdy low-teens due to WFH, homegrown silicon transition, and 5G adoption, leveraged via buybacks to attain high-teens EPS development. Longer-term (>3y) income development of excessive single-digits mixed with continued sturdy buyback tempo yields sustainable double-digit EPS development.

On valuation, I am sticking with a 22x long-term a number of goal for now (trailing lags at 16x however quick catching up by a degree per quarter), at the very least till outlier outcomes of this quarter (and maybe FY) are behind us, as that is after we’ll get higher validation of the sustainable long-term development potential that I am at present projecting.

Detailed estimates:

3mo ending Mar21  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   77.1     -  0.98
My estimates       78.2  40.8  1.05 (16.92b shares)


3mo ending Jun21  Rev$B   GM%  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----  ----
Analysts consens   68.9     -  0.82
Apple gde lo (e)   67.0  40.0  0.80*
Apple gde hello (e)   71.0  41.0  0.91*
My estimates       70.5  40.6  0.89 (16.77b shares)

*EPS steering ranges derived from different figures supplied
 by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me


12m ending Sep21  Rev$B  $EPS
----------------  -----  ----
Analysts consens  334.0  4.46
My estimates      337.6  4.63


Valuation
Timeframe  NTMfrom  $EPS  Y/Y  Mult  Val   $*   Div  Tot
---------  -------  ----  ---  ----  ---  ---  ----  ---
Path Val  Apr2020  4.11  29%  16.0   66  4.4  0.82   71
Frwrd Val  Apr2021  4.97  21%  19.5   97  2.7  0.92  100
1y Goal  Apr2022  5.74  16%  21.2  122  1.8  1.00  125
2y Worth!  Apr2023  6.41  12%  21.8  140  1.1  1.16  142

*Money per share steadiness web of debt and industrial paper

(click on to enlarge)

F2Q21 Statements of Operations

Revenues  F2Q21e   F2Q20   Y/Y%
--------  ------  ------  -----
iPhone    39,514  28,962  +36.4
Mac        7,934   5,351  +48.3
iPad       6,116   4,368  +40.0
W/H/A      8,220   6,284  +30.8
--------  ------  ------  -----
Merchandise  61,783  44,965  +37.4
Providers  16,445  13,348  +23.2
--------  ------  ------  -----
Tot Revs  78,228  58,313  +34.2

Gross Margin Breakdown
--------  ------  ------  -----
Merchandise  20,614  13,644  +51.1
Providers  11,290   8,726  +29.4
--------  ------  ------  -----
Tot GM    31,903  22,370  +42.6
--------  ------  ------  -----
Prod GM%   33.4%   30.3%   +3.0
Svcs GM%   68.7%   65.4%   +3.3
--------  ------  ------  -----
Tot GM%    40.8%   38.4%   +2.4

Op Expns  10,838   9,517  +13.9
--------  ------  ------  -----
OpIncome  21,065  12,853  +63.9
Op Mrgn%   26.9%   22.0%   +4.9

OIE           69     282  -75.4
--------  ------  ------  -----
Pre-Tax   21,134  13,135  +60.9

Tax Price   16.0%   14.4%   +1.6
Tax Prov   3,382   1,886  +79.3
--------  ------  ------  -----
Web Incm  17,753  11,249  +57.8
Web Mrg%   22.7%   19.3%   +3.4

Dil Shrs  16,923  17,619   -3.9
--------  ------  ------  -----
EPS        $1.05   $0.64  +64.3

Quantities in hundreds of thousands besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in %
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