As of yesterday’s shut of $146.39, AAPL trades at a 25.1x a number of on my NTM EPS estimate (24.5x when excluding NTM web money and dividends).
Because the scorching progress interval as a result of final yr’s covid closures-impacted compares and subsequent extraordinary shifts in know-how wants begins subsiding over the present and subsequent couple of quarters, and given the previous a number of months to nearly a yr of the inventory stagnating, the market is probably going able to reassess Apple’s future progress expectations and assign a corresponding valuation a number of that displays this progress potential.
I consider a long-term base case of 10% EPS progress is sustainable for a minimum of 3-5 years after my mid-term 2-3y extra brisk projection detailed under (which stands in distinction to most analysts turning skeptical on a lot progress and even anticipating declines for the following couple of years or so), pushed by mid-high single-digits income progress compounded with continued tempo of buybacks round $100b per yr (and certain rising after 2026).
Affirmation of the sustainability of progress by way of new product bulletins in addition to already introduced and visual roadmap resiliency (5G, Silicon, Providers adoption) over the following yr ought to simply justify a 25x a number of on forward-looking earnings, so the valuation projection proven at a 22x a number of nonetheless has room for upside revisions.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Jun21 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 72.9 - 1.00 My estimates 74.2 42.1 1.03 (16.78b shares) 3mo ending Sep21 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 81.0 - 1.12 Apple gde lo (e) 78.0 41.0 1.05* Apple gde hello (e) 82.0 42.0 1.16* My estimates 81.1 41.6 1.14 (16.63b shares) *EPS steerage ranges derived from different figures offered by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep22 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- Analysts consens 368.8 5.34 My estimates 403.5 6.02 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- Path Val Jul2020 4.84 47% 17.0 82 4.2 0.84 87 Frwrd Val Jul2021 5.83 20% 20.1 117 2.7 0.91 121 1y Goal Jul2022 6.68 15% 21.4 143 1.9 1.05 146 2y Worth! Jul2023 7.44 11% 21.8 163 1.1 1.27 165 *Money per share stability web of debt and business paper(click on to enlarge)
F3Q21 Statements of Operations Revenues F3Q21e F3Q20 Y/Y% -------- ------ ------ ----- iPhone 33,591 26,418 +27.2 Mac 7,709 7,079 +8.9 iPad 8,044 6,582 +22.2 W/H/A 8,028 6,450 +24.5 -------- ------ ------ ----- Merchandise 57,371 46,529 +23.3 Providers 16,840 13,156 +28.0 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot Revs 74,211 59,685 +24.3 Gross Margin Breakdown -------- ------ ------ ----- Merchandise 19,352 13,836 +39.9 Providers 11,865 8,844 +34.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM 31,217 22,680 +37.6 -------- ------ ------ ----- Prod GM% 33.7% 29.7% +4.0 Svcs GM% 70.5% 67.2% +3.2 -------- ------ ------ ----- Tot GM% 42.1% 38.0% +4.1 Op Expns 11,219 9,589 +17.0 -------- ------ ------ ----- OpIncome 19,998 13,091 +52.8 Op Mrgn% 26.9% 21.9% +5.0 OIE 56 46 +21.1 -------- ------ ------ ----- Pre-Tax 20,054 13,137 +52.7 Tax Price 14.0% 14.3% -0.3 Tax Prov 2,808 1,884 +49.0 -------- ------ ------ ----- Internet Incm 17,247 11,253 +53.3 Internet Mrg% 22.7% 19.3% +3.4 Dil Shrs 16,779 17,419 -3.7 -------- ------ ------ ----- EPS $1.03 $0.65 +59.1 Quantities in tens of millions besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in %
