As of as we speak’s closing value of $142.41, AAPL trades at a 20.0x a number of on my NTM EPS estimate (19.5x when excluding NTM web money and dividends).
Lowered the long-term (past FY23) income progress price by one other level or so, now at mid single-digits, yielding mid-high single-digits in long-term EPS progress. New income streams will not transfer the needle for the subsequent 2y and can present very low visibility of the expansion potential even after 3-5y, although the inventory value ought to start to mirror no matter traders dream up of such long-term potential as quickly as we get any announcement, and sure even earlier.
Within the quick time period, I trimmed 4Q22/FY23 income and EPS by $2/4b and seven/5¢ respectively, principally because of FX. Throughout unsure instances forward Apple may simply determine to emphasise money conservation however as an alternative I am going with a extra intentionally opportunistic strategy, given the engaging share value, by modeling at the very least $80b of the $86b remaining buyback authorization over the three quarters ending 2Q23 (totaling over $100b for the 12 months and protecting it there for the subsequent 3 years), in addition to a dividend enhance for subsequent 12 months akin to the one executed in 2018 (+16%) somewhat than the single-digits elevate seen within the final 3 years. I doubt the 14-week Q1 has been thought of a lot in consensus estimates. This represents 4-8% upside and maybe explains some/most of my divergence for Q1.
Detailed estimates:
3mo ending Sep22 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 88.9 - 1.27 My estimates 90.1 42.5 1.35 (16.14b shares) 3mo ending Dec22 Rev$B GM% $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- ---- Analysts consens 128.4 - 2.14 Apple gde lo (e) 130.0 42.0 2.27* Apple gde hello (e) 137.0 43.0 2.39* My estimates 137.8 42.9 2.42 (15.97b shares) *EPS steering ranges derived from different figures supplied by Apple and diluted shares excellent estimated by me 12m ending Sep23 Rev$B $EPS ---------------- ----- ---- Analysts consens 411.9 6.44 My estimates 431.4 7.12 Valuation Timeframe NTMfrom $EPS Y/Y Mult Val $* Div Tot --------- ------- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- Path Val Oct2021 6.17 10% 21.5 133 3.0 0.90 136 Frwrd Val Oct2022 7.12 15% 23.2 165 2.5 1.00 169 1y Goal Oct2023 7.61 7% 23.8 181 1.8 1.14 184 2y Worth! Oct2024 8.17 7% 23.9 196 1.1 1.28 198 *Money per share stability web of debt and business paper(click on to enlarge)
F4Q22 Statements of Operations Revenues F4Q22e F4Q21 Y/Y% -------- ------- ------- ----- iPhone 43,593 38,868 12.2 Mac 9,997 9,178 8.9 iPad 7,926 8,252 -4.0 W/H/A 9,444 8,785 7.5 -------- ------- ------- ----- Merchandise 70,959 65,083 9.0 Providers 20,133 18,277 10.2 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot Revs 91,092 83,360 9.3 Gross Margin Breakdown -------- ------- ------- ----- Merchandise 24,289 22,293 9.0 Providers 14,437 12,881 12.1 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot GM 38,726 35,174 10.1 -------- ------- ------- ----- Prod GM% 34.2% 34.3% -0.0 Svcs GM% 71.7% 70.5% 1.2 -------- ------- ------- ----- Tot GM% 42.5% 42.2% 0.3 Op Expns 12,970 11,388 13.9 -------- ------- ------- ----- OpIncome 25,756 23,786 8.3 Op Mrgn% 28.3% 28.5% -0.3 OIE 200 -538 N/A -------- ------- ------- ----- Pre-Tax 25,956 23,248 11.7 Tax Fee 16.0% 11.6% 4.4 Tax Prov 4,153 2,697 54.0 -------- ------- ------- ----- Internet Incm 21,803 20,551 6.1 Internet Mrg% 23.9% 24.7% -0.7 Dil Shrs 16,142 16,635 -3.0 -------- ------- ------- ----- EPS $1.35 $1.24 9.3 Quantities in hundreds of thousands besides EPS in {dollars} and ratios in %
